Civil wars can be broadly described as a violent conflict taking place in the territory of an anocracy. Anocracies are neither full autocracies or dictatorships. In fact, it can be described as the rocky road from dictatorships to democracies. Rapid democratization leads to destabilization. When certain dictatorial rule ends, the transition period in which the question of whom does power lie with prevails and unrest can rise as a new political system evolves, therefore, the chance of civil war increases. But democratization is possible if a country takes its time. How reform and gradual evolution of a political system reduces uncertainty for citizens and provide assurances to incumbent elites.
Now we come to the question of who starts civil war. Downgraded groups dominated by ethnic factions start civil wars at the loss of power and hope. Let us study two elements of this statement:
1) Downgraded groups marginalised on the basis of clan and ethnicity are mainly the root causes of unrest. Increasingly, some sort of ethnic cleansing is involved in most civil wars or it is over reasons related to community or ethnicity. Other times, it can be over natural resources or economic conflicts.
2) They start civil wars at the loss of power and hope - Elections are destabilizing events in highly factionalized anocracies, especially when a downgraded group loses. When a terror reign is assured, they lose hope and resorts to violent means.
Open, unregulated social media turns out to be the perfect accelerant for the conditions leading to civil war, with motive, hate and discord reaching the masses. Those who wage war most probably won't have military strength and use the strategy of guerilla warfare and terrorism.
As it is the downfall of a government that provides a setting for a civil war, the best way to reform a budding insurgency is to reform a downgraded government.
- Bolster rule of law
- Equal access to facilities and voting
- Improve quality of services
- Local groups will gravitate to parties more likely providing security and safety. Governments can undercut support for extremists by reducing grievances and providing benefits
Written by: Ameya Harish
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